There Will Be Fireworks
Today is July 4, 2015. To some people, and rightly so, it will mark the 239th anniversary of the day the 13 colonies that used to be called America declared their independence from England. The birth of our nation, so to speak. To others, the vast majority of Americans I would presume, it represents an opportunity to drink a lot of beer, cook and eat a lot of barbeque food, and to get a much needed day off of work in the middle of the summer.
And to watch some fireworks go off. People seem to really like hearing loud explosions going off. They also seem to really like watching bright, shiny things that splash and sparkle across the sky in conjunction with the explosions. It’s probably because of the beer. They especially like expressing their feelings about seeing said pyrotechnics and do it in such ways as going “oooooooooooohhhhhh!!!!!!” and the equally popular “aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!”
July 4th is also seen as the unofficial mid-point of the major league baseball season. Many teams have played exactly 81 games, or half of their scheduled 162 game season. A few have played a couple more than half. Some, due to rain outs, have played a few less than 81.
It’s a time when players’ half seasons can be looked at and evaluated on a 50% basis. In other words, whatever stats they have accumulated so far can be multiplied by two and you can get an idea of what type of full season they are likely to end up with. The best examples are pitching wins and batting stats such as home runs, steals, runs scored and runs batted in or RBI’s. If you are at or close to ten wins, you at least have a chance to win twenty. 50 runs scored or 50 runs driven in give you a shot at 100 (although your odds are better if you have 60 by now, as stats tend to dry up a bit more in the second half of the season due to the fatigue of a long season). 20 home runs at the half way mark COULD get you to 40, but is more likely to get you to “Thirty-something.”
Teams are also in the half way evaluation mode. As in, if we (the team) have sucked this long into the season, is the season over and we should probably get ourselves into the trading mode? Or, has there been injuries and other extenuating circumstances that have caused a weak first half, with the possibilities of a turn-around (that is IF the team has stayed close enough to the leaders to be within “reach” of catching them with a better second half) much stronger now that the team is finally healthy?
There HAVE been cases (S.F. Giants and K.C. Royals last year, St. Louis Cards in 2011 to name a few) where a team that had a poor first half (but somehow had stayed close) of a season, and then got their act together in the second half and fought their way down the stretch and won either their division or a wild card. Some of those teams in fact were playing such good ball late in the season that THEY were actually the hottest teams in baseball in September and THEY were the ones that went on and captured the World Series. The case is often not “how many” did you win during the regular season, it’s “how hot” are you at the end of the season (and the playoffs)?
Thanks to the fact that The Wild Card allows TWO teams from each league to still have a shot at the playoffs, even though they might NOT win their division, there are a whole slew of teams that have to be thinking that their season is still very much alive.
As we speak, there are a few teams that look really good right now to win their divisions (the surprising Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals in the American League, and the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League). There are teams that currently LEAD their divisions, but are by no means secure in their leads (the Yankees in the AL East have three teams right on their heels only two games behind them, the Dodgers in the NL West have the defending champion S. F. Giants only three games behind them, and the Washington Nationals are only 3 1/2 game ahead of the N.Y. Mets in the NL East).
And, there are a few teams that are something like ten games or more out of a playoff spot with half a season to go. These teams are in last place this late in the year and are PROBABLY throwing up a white flag and ready to trade tradeable assets for prospects that might help them be good a year or two from now (like the Astros did it). I’m talking to YOU Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, and Colorado Rockies. Some of you others (Cincy Reds, Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, Oakland A’s) will either have to go on large winning streaks, or at least get smoking hot down the stretch to even be in the conversation of making the playoffs.
This means that ALL of the rest of the teams I have not mentioned yet are STILL in the conversation to make the playoffs, to have a successful season. This means that a good 75% of all teams in baseball are either in it, close to it, or at least have a relatively decent (not just mathematical, but a reasonable, achievable) shot at making the playoffs.
Cause, right now, the Cubs, the team that would be the second wild card in the National League would only be six games over .500 ball. That puts everybody who is five or so games UNDER .500 at least within reach of catching the Cubs.
The American League’s TWO wild cards right now would be two of the three amongst the Baltimore Orioles, the Minnesota Twins, and the Los Angeles-California Angels of Anaheim-Orange County, who are all 42 and 38. There are another five or so teams within about two games of the wild cards, and another three or so teams a few more games behind the chasers. Any of those can rip off a good winning streak and get RIGHT back into playoff contention.
In other words, as boring as baseball might seem now in these dog days of summer, there are a whole lot of teams lining up to make some pretty interesting stretch runs in both leagues during the last couple of months of the season. Dare I say, there could be some major fireworks come the stretch drive of late September.
One thing is for sure. Tonight is July 4th. There WILL be fireworks tonight.
