Stretch Drive

Baseball has entered its September stretch drive and now the games seem to have a whole lot more meaning. Most teams have somewhere around 25 or so games to play. It’s getting close to the end, but there is still enough time for a team to either get hot and run the table, or for “the other team” to choke their guts out and collapse down the stretch.

Some teams have separated themselves from the competition so much that we can probably write their names down now for clinching the playoffs. Others are still fighting their way into one last stretch drive to TRY their damnedest to make the playoffs. We all have seen what can happen just by getting in, so here are who are “IN” (mathematically they could still not make it, but we are going with high probabilities here) and who are still in the hunt.

National League – “IN”

The Cards

The Cardinals have been the best team in baseball (with the best record) for nearly the entire season. They have great starting pitching, relief pitching, clutch hitting up and down the lineup, and they have the mystique of a team that has been there before and will beat you if they play you unless you come up with an extraordinary effort. Even though they are in a division with two other teams that are strong candidates to make the playoffs, they are on pace to win over 100 games (38 games over .500 as of this writing) and will be one of the teams playing meaningful baseball in October.

The Bucs

The Pirates would be comfortably leading their division anywhere but the Central (because of St. Louis) but they are a team that strikes fear in most of the National League. That is because they are good. They play a tough brand of baseball with one ace, good enough starting pitching, very good hitting, and excellent back of the bullpen relief pitching that usually closes out leads for wins. They play ALL of the National League tough when they play head up. At 27 games over .500, they WILL at minimum be the top Wild Card.

Probably IN

The Dodgers

Remember the phrase “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain”? About a team with a great one – two punch with not a whole lot of other pitching? That’s the Dodgers. They have “Zack and Clayton and a whole lot of nervous waitin’.” In Greinke and Kershaw, the Dodgers have arguably the best two starting pitchers in the National League that they can throw up against ANY pitchers in baseball. They have been no-hit twice in the last three weeks. They can win the entire ball of wax if the two stay hot, but can lose it all if either of them falters, because the rest of the team is barely above average.

They will probably win the NL West, but the team behind them is the defending champion Giants and everyone knows how the Giants and Dodgers rivalry can produce ANYTHING.

The Cubbies

The Cubs have quietly grown up and become a contender. They are managed by former Tampa Bay skipper Joe Madden, who has this amazing knack for getting average teams to play over their heads and win ballgames. Lo and behold, he has the Cubs about 20 games over .500 and have separated them from the rest of the second Wild Card contenders by somewhere around six or so games with the 25 or so to play. They have an ace pitcher in Jake Arrieta and another thing on their side. They’re due. They have not won a World Series in over 100 years. The Red Sox won. Could the Cubs? Madden’s managing gives them a chance.

The winner of the Mets and Nats

The winner in the East will be either the Mets or the Nationals. The Mets lead by four games, but they still have a lot of games to play head to head against each other. Both teams have REALLY good starting pitching. Both have SOME good hitting, but not as consistent of a lineup as, say, the Cardinals. It is bothersome to Mets fans that they are already talking about shutting down pitcher Matt Harvey due to amount of innings pitched this season. That is just giving the team a psychological nod from management that it is not “all in” in its quest to win it all this season. A few years ago, Washington “shut down” their star young pitcher Stephen Strasburg and all it got them was being ousted in their opening round of the playoffs.

The winner of the East will make the playoffs and be a threat because of their excellent starting pitching. Either one of the two teams has somewhat of a question mark from their closers (not COMPLETELY dependable like some other teams). The second place finisher here probably will NOT catch the Cubs for the second Wild Card.

Mathematically Challenged

The second place finisher in the East will probably not make the playoffs because they are too many games behind the Cubs with too few games to play. And, they will be playing each other, meaning the team that wins will be closer to winning the division, while the other will have LOST games that they needed to win in order to catch the Cubs. Sorry Nats and Mets, but it is probably going to be “loser goes home.”

The Giants

The Giants are baseball’s defending World Champions. Not only that, they have won the championship in three of the last five years. If ANY team had the pedigree of a champion, it is this team. But they are 7 1/2 games behind the Dodgers with about 25 games to play. Maybe, if they won about 20 out of their last 25 games, they could either catch the Dodgers for the division, or the Cubs for the last Wild Card.

The Giants, of course, HAVE gotten red hot and come from behind to catch the Dodgers before, but Bobby Thomson is not hitting for this year’s Giants and Ralph Branca is not pitching for this year’s Dodgers. And besides, the Giants have won their Championships in even years (2010, 2012 and 2014) and this is the year 2015.

Everyone else is playing out the season. Maybe some of them can get excited about trying to knock someone else out of the playoffs, but in terms of playing in the post-season, the rest of the National League is TOAST.

American League – “IN”

The Royals

The Kansas City Royals made the playoffs last year as a Wild Card and practically ran the table in the playoffs until they fell just short in the World Series and lost to the Giants. Well, everyone on KC is back and this year they have trounced the AL Central to the point of leading the division by 12 games with 26 to play. They have enough starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting and defense to be legitimate contenders, probably for the next whole bunch of years. The Kansas City Royals have simply figured out how to win. They are in and they are a threat.

The winner of the East

Of course, the winner of the East is definitely in the playoffs and the second place team is very likely going to make it as the Wild Card as well. At the trading deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays were a struggling to play .500 ball club. Then, their management traded for arguably the best hitter (Troy Tulowitzki) and the best pitcher (David Price) available, and the team turned into a wrecking crew and are now 20 games over .500. They now lead the Yankees by a game and a half.

Toronto is a team to be reckoned with. They WILL make the playoffs. The Yankees probably will too as Wild Card #1 (or as champs of the East and Toronto would be the Wild Card).

The winner of the West

Who would have thought you would be saying the name the Houston Astros and the phrase “the winner of the West” in the same sentence? There are times during the last few years when mention of the name Houston Astros drew large guffaws. Then, they started getting good pitching, some good hitting, and great closing and they started winning games against the big boys. Now they have a two game lead over the Texas Rangers and would look pretty good as Wild Card number two if they didn’t win the West. However, they and some others have a pennant race ahead of them for the next month.

Probably IN

As mentioned before, the Astros and the two teams in the East are PROBABLY IN. There could only be one of them make it and some other team gets red hot and knocks everyone off except the winner of the East. Not likely, but possible. Unlike the National League, there are more teams in the AL who still think they have a chance. We call those teams “In The Hunt.”

In The Hunt

Texas is definitely in the running for the playoffs. They are two games behind the Astros in the West and they are currently leading the other Wild Card contenders by at least a game and a half. They got hot in August and have played their way back into the playoff hunt by winning games that they needed to win.

The Minnesota Twins have turned over most of their roster and are now primarily playing a solid group of younger players. Like what happens when you go with youth, they have played off and on between really good and really bad ball all season. The end result is that they are within striking distance of a playoff spot this late in the season. Who knows if the young players will suddenly get hot and win enough games down the stretch to win a playoff spot? Their fans are happy that they now have a team that is relevant again.

The LA – Anaheim – California Angels that play their games near Disneyland are the mystery team this year. They play at times like a definite playoff team. They have arguably baseball’s best player of the present Mike Trout and the best player from yesteryear who is playing like a great player again in Albert Pujols, but they always seem to lose about the same amount of games that they win. Questionable pitching sometimes. Inconsistent hitting a lot of the time. .500 ball (which they are playing now) is the result. That is not going to cut it. Either win a lot of games down the stretch or go home, Angels.

And that is the lesson to be learned for some of these playoff contending teams. Some teams may have it in the bag, but others? You teams had better win games down the stretch, or go home.