Period of Adjustment
As we speak, both the NBA Finals and the NHL Finals are 2 to 1 series after three games. It so happens that the Cleveland Cavaliers lead the Golden State Warriors in hoops, and the Tampa Bay Lightning leads the Chicago Blackhawks by the same 2 to 1 margins. Some might say, the results so far are a surprise.
The teams who are leading don’t think it’s a surprise. They got this far because they WERE good enough to get to the finals and they also aren’t surprised because THEY are both planning on winning these damn championships. The two teams who are trailing in the series, let’s just say it then – All four teams still alive in the two sports’ marquee events of their profession think that THEY are going to win the championship.
In each case, it’s a SEVEN game series, meaning someone has to be good enough to NOT be able to be beat in four games out of the seven.
When you look at a series that way, you can start to identify who MIGHT be the team who’s probably going to win each series. That is, WHO is the team that WON’T allow themselves to be defeated in four whole games out of the seven?
Right now, it looks like the teams who are “in control of the series” are the teams who are leading 2 to 1, Tampa Bay in hockey and Cleveland in hoops.
But, there is a thing that goes on in seven game series that isn’t necessarily evident now, and that is, teams MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. There comes a time in these big time “finals” series where the teams that are trailing (and were probably both favored before the series started) say, “now just hold on there,” and they start the process of CHANGING their tactics and thinking maybe that original game plan needs to be tweaked a little.
The Blackhawks and the Warriors are seeing that MAYBE their opponents are playing defense a whole lot better than they originally thought they would play.
In basketball, the Cleveland Cavs are MUCH better at defending their basket in close than the Warriors thought they’d be. They are blocking a lot of shots that the Warriors thought might be there when they drove to the basket. They are rebounding MUCH better than the Warriors thought they would be. Cleveland came out with a game plan that said they were NOT going to let Warrior star guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson beat them, if at all possible.
And Cleveland’s defense against Golden State, along with their superior rebounding (and it doesn’t hurt that they have LeBron James controlling the flow of the game), has allowed them to outplay the Warriors. If Golden State wants to continue “doing things the same way,” they will go down to defeat. If they make some adjustments, and do some things that play more towards THEIR strengths and away from Cleveland’s strengths, they can get back in the series.
In hockey, I’m convinced that the Lightning are playing better as a team than what the Blackhawks thought they were going to face. The great offensive team that the Blackhawks have put together has often played so well, they’ve been able to turn on their offense at will during the playoffs and has allowed them to overcome some really sloppy play. It really looks like they can’t play that type of game against Tampa Bay, who is much tighter defensively and who have some counter striking capabilities of their own.
The Blackhawks need to adjust and make FEWER mistakes than they have been making. They have to realize that they need to play games (traditional playoff-type hockey) that DON’T have them give up three goals or more, as the games seem to be taking on the characteristics of lower scoring, less wide open games. They can always turn it up a notch at the ends of games, but that is a team that needs to be more careful with the puck earlier in games.
The bottom line is this. The adjustments that teams make some time between the third and fourth games of any finals in the playoffs are usually what determines WHO will ultimately win each series. Will the teams that are down 2 to 1 adjust to the competitive flow of the series? Or, will the teams who are ahead continue to outplay their favored opponents? Now is when you see the team who is trailing thinking that maybe they need to adjust their playing rotation a little to give their teams a new look. To find out if some of their choices for playing time MAYBE haven’t been playing as well as they should have played.
Just because a team is trailing in a series 2 to 1 doesn’t mean it still can’t come back. Also, just because one team was favored to beat another doesn’t mean that the other team is just going to roll over and let them come back and beat them. These are really GOOD teams that are still playing in the finals of these two sports. ALL of the teams that are left really want to win the championship of their sport.
Therefore, you can expect the teams who are trailing to go ALL out to get back into their series. It has gone a certain way so far in each of the two series. Now, it has to go differently (play better, play smarter, play “differently”), or the teams who are behind will have to go home.
Experts can talk all they want. It’s still the first team to win FOUR games. On the floor. On the ice.
