A Waste Of Time

There is a play in pro football that is a complete waste of effort. It is a totally worthless exercise in football strategy. It is called the one yard run on first down. It is a complete waste of time.

You will recognize this play by the singular nature of it. As in, the yards gained on it. As in, the team always seems to be either gaining only one yard or losing one yard with each run. Or gaining zero yards. It’s a nowheresville offense and it stinks.

A lot of teams utilize this offensive strategy. There is a word for a lot of those teams. That word is often “losers,” but usually the word that best describes them is “stupid.” That’s because, usually, their head coach TELLS everyone in the news that his team is going to have to establish the running game that week. And, this is going to come as a surprise to many of you, there’s usually someone from the other team who hears this pre-announcement of the game plan. And that opponent’s defense usually comes up with their own defensive game plan that says something to the effect that, “these guys are NOT going to establish the run against us.”

And so, on first down, the first play of the game, what does this offense do? They hand the ball off to a running back, who usually meets up with about three extra guys in the box, waiting to tackle him. The play usually ends up gaining ONE YARD.

And a gain of one yard on first down leaves the offensive team with 2nd and nine. By the way, note that this down and distance is not all that different from 2nd and ten.

And what does that offensively challenged team often do on 2nd and nine? You guessed it. They hand the ball off and gain another whole yard, and leave themselves with a 3rd and eight. If you are a fan of a losing pro football team, there’s a good chance you have seen this offensive strategy in action.

Anyway, you are two plays into a drive, and you have gone nowhere. Two whole plays have gained only two whole yards further than if you had thrown two incomplete passes.

But, that’s okay, your offensive coordinator would assure you, cause your quarterback is good. He completes 60% of his passes and there’s a good chance he will complete the next pass for more than nine or ten yards and get your team a first down. Only, the other team knows your offense now HAS to throw on this 3rd and long. They have the option of using all kinds of blitz packages to rush the passer. They can pressure the quarterback more on a known 3rd down and long, obvious passing situations, and force bad throws, disrupted patterns and often times, incompletes and interceptions.

Oh, and the defensive backs have this knack for knowing how many yards are needed for a first down. They often sit back and play the play as if the pass pattern will be attempted to go JUST that exact distance needed for the first down. And so they often can foil that 3rd down attempt and force a three and out and a punt, just the thing ALL offenses cannot do in this age of teams being able to pass the ball up and down the field.

And so, the opposing team throws on first down, throws on second down, gains huge chunks of yards every time they drop back to pass. They mix in a run now and then, usually on plays where the defense least expects it. They march down and score a touchdown.

And YOUR team gets the ball again, and what do they do? They repeat the same offensive sequence, because someone on their coaching staff thinks THEY have got to establish the run. The same thing happens again (they go three and out), and they punt again. And the other team opens up on your team’s tired defense and scores on you again. You are down 14 to nothing and you don’t have a 1st down yet, and now, the other team KNOWS you have to throw the ball to catch up, so they have the same pass rush mentality they have when you are 3rd and long, and they go after your quarterback like a pack of hyenas.

Every single running play you have run, the defense has pretty much known you were going to run. AND, every passing play you have run, the defense knew you were going to do that also.

This offensive strategy is a complete recipe for disaster. Your advantage on offense is to know what you are going to run, while the defense is kept guessing. To throw when they are expecting the run, and to run when they are expecting the pass.

This is not to be confused with the idea of establishing the run WHEN you have a good running attack. There are signs that give a pretty clear indication of whether a running attack is working. The main sign that indicates whether the running game is working is – and don’t act too shocked when you hear this – the running game is GAINING SIGNIFICANT YARDS.

You have to gain four, five or six yards on your running plays. Think of it, even three yards per carry, times three plays, equals nine yards and you are still short of a first down. You HAVE to be gaining enough yards to move the chains to say you have established a running game.

The ONLY benefit to running the ball in the “one yard and a cloud of dust” offense is that it DOES keep the opposing offense off the field, and that, technically, you are keeping the ball in “time of possession.” But, that statistic is only valid if, while you are running the ball on offense, then that is time that the OTHER team is not able to have the ball on offense. But, if that other team is MORE efficient when they have the ball, all the time of possession in the world won’t win you any games.

This whole strategy is actually depending on a quarterback being a 100% passer. Either he is able to complete passes for long distances on 3rd and long, or your team is punting. But, there’s another way of approaching this.

Assuming that a quarterback that is a 60% passer will complete six out of every ten passes (and will probably be even better with the surprise of throwing on non-expected passing downs), you can be almost 100% certain that you will do better than ONE yard and a cloud of dust. If you throw it on the first two downs, the odds (60%) are that you will complete at least one of them, probably for something that would likely leave you at 3rd and short. And that would leave you at a MUCH more manageable down and distance.

If you complete the pass on first down, you could probably run it the next two plays and get the first down THAT way. Or, you can fake the run at any time, and have the defense off guard when you try play-action pass plays. Either scenario, you are probably in better position than with two lousy running plays on the first two downs.

And here is the real clincher. Even if BOTH first and second down passes fall incomplete, you are at 3rd and ten, which is not that much different than if you run two weak ass running plays and are at 3rd and eight. You will need the same ten yard pass completion to get a first down as in the other scenario. And playing the percentages, the passer with the 60% completion average will have the odds in his favor even more so to complete that next pass.

There is a funny saying from the sportscaster fraternity about a gritty and determined, but plodding running back. “If you’ve got a 3rd and one (yard to go), he’ll get you that one. If you’ve got a 3rd and three, he’ll still get you that one.” The same can be concluded about the “establishing the run first” brand of offense. A defensive team worth its salt, that is expecting you will try to establish the run, is more than capable of stopping that running game, and holding you to that one yard per carry.

And if you keep trying to run the ball, when it’s obvious to everyone in the stadium that you cannot get more than a yard or two per carry, then you are doing your team a disservice. You are keeping the ball in “time of possession,” but you are putting too much pressure on your quarterback to be perfect, and you are not advancing it enough up the field to win football games. You really are just wasting plays, wasting away your chance to win, and pretty much just wasting your time.